Stellenbosch University
Welcome to Stellenbosch University
Academics endorse Gordhan
Author: Business Day Live
Published: 23/05/2016

In a letter published on 20 May 2016 in Business Day Live, a number of academics including Prof Stan du Plessis, Dean of the SU Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, endorsed the efforts of Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, the National Treasury and the South African Reserve Bank in their collective effort to avoid an investment downgrade.

The contents of the letter are reproduced below. To read the letter in Business Day Live, click here.


We, the undersigned academics and professionals specialising in related disciplines, note with a deep concern the conflicting media reports on the position of Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, and especially the policy uncertainty that is being generated by such reports.

SA currently faces particularly serious challenges in its continued engagement with credit rating agencies and investors in the quest to avert the downgrading of the country's credit risk rating, and to promote a renewed effort to encourage economic growth, job creation and poverty alleviation.

In a year in which economic growth in SA is widely expected to be less than 1%, an investment downgrade will result in undue hardship of a kind that will unavoidably impact most severely on the poorest of the poor.

A downgrade will, among other things, raise interest rates further and increase the cost of borrowing in both the public and private sectors.

It will put another question mark over the currency. SA's ability to curtail poverty and drive job creation will be severely hampered.

We, therefore, endorse the sterling efforts of Gordhan, the National Treasury and the South African Reserve Bank in their collective effort, together with business and labour, to avoid such an investment downgrade.

However, to continue to fulfil this important duty to SA, Gordhan and the Treasury must be afforded the necessary support and freedom to discharge this responsibility without fear or favour.

Gordhan's track record has demonstrated that he not only has a clear understanding of the overall economic and fiscal challenges facing SA, but that he has worked according to a definite and detailed fiscal plan in seeking to avoid these pitfalls.

In the long-term interests of financial stability in SA, it remains imperative that the government should avoid diverting from the broad fiscal path outlined in the 2016-17 budget.

A failure to adhere to the agreed fiscal framework will inevitably lead to an even higher tax burden, as well as precipitating a likely sovereign risk downgrade for the country.

To minimise these risks, SA needs to maintain continuity and predictability in its policy framework.

The importance to SA of stable and capable economic institutions such as the Treasury, the Reserve Bank and the South African Revenue Service — as well as other institutions such as an independent judiciary and a free press — cannot be emphasised enough.

Any weakening of this stability will have serious consequences for investor confidence and SA's economic performance. Effective institutions in SA remain one of its best recognised strengths in troubled times.

While there may sometimes be divergent views among economists about fiscal policy, we believe these are less important now than the need to avoid damaging the integrity of an institution such as the Treasury, whether from inside or outside the public sector.

We hope other key stakeholders in the economy will unite with us in raising serious concerns about the mounting and unwarranted pressure being put on Gordhan and the Treasury.

 

The writers are:

Prof Frikkie Booysen, Department of Economics, University of the Free State; Prof Philippe Burger, Department of Economics, University of the Free State; Prof Stan du Plessis, Dean, Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences, University of Stellenbosch; Prof Tommy du Plessis, Director, School of Business and Governance, North West University; Prof Lorraine Greyling, Department of Economics and Econometrics, University of Johannesburg; Prof Gavin Keeton, Department of Economics, University of Rhodes; Prof Steve Koch, Department of Economics, University of Pretoria; Prof Waldo Krugell, Department of Economics, North West University; Prof Ismail Lagardien, Dean, Business School, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University; Prof Murray Leibbrandt, Vice-Chancellor Poverty and Inequality, University of Cape Town; Prof Elsabe Loots, Dean, Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences, University of Pretoria; Prof Ronnie Lotriet, School of Business and Governance, North West University; Prof Johan Lotter, Department of Economics, University of South Africa; Mr Lumkile Mondi, Senior Lecturer, School of Economic and Business Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand; Prof Vishnu Padayachee, Distinguished Professor, School of Economic and Business Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand; Prof Theuns Pelser, Dean, School of Business, University of KwaZulu Natal; Prof Jannie Rossouw, School of Economic and Business Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand; Prof Raymond Parsons, School of Business and Governance, North West University.