Below is an excerpt from an article by Dr Morne Mostert, Director of the Institute for Futures Research at Stellenbosch University, that originally appeared in the 14 January 2016 edition of finweek. For more information, visit http://www.fin24.com/Finweek/Opinion/what-the-past-tells-us-about-2016-20160111

South Africa’s future is of interest to a broad systemic network of stakeholders both nationally and abroad. Whether you are based in the country, have family here or visit as a tourist, the dynamics of the South African future will impact your life.

But of course, this systemic character of interconnectedness extends to developments in other countries as SA is also subject to the ebb and flow of international vicissitudes. 

If we reflect on 2015, we see that the world was characterised by large scale events that had global reverberation. At a brief glance, natural disasters were commonplace and the Syrian refugee crisis gripped the globe.

In SA, student protests, corruption and multiple appointments of finance ministers dominated national discourse, together with economic downgrading and a weakening currency.

A milestone year

For futurists, however, events of the past inform but do not determine the future. Patterns of the past shape our reading of the future only in the context of new patterns. 

Anniversaries are another technique for tracking progress and it is interesting to note some of the commemorations that will occur in 2016: Twitter turns 10. Wikipedia is 15. Barbados celebrates 50 years of independence. Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbour is remembered after 75 years. 

Queen Elizabeth turns 90. BMW becomes a centenarian, as does Einstein’s article on the general theory of relativity.  

Londoners celebrate 350 years of recovery following the fire of London. Shakespeare will have cast off his mortal coil for 400 years. 

The Reinheitsgebot (enforcing the brewing of pure beer) celebrates 500 years of intoxication. And it is 950 years since the battle of Hastings laid the foundations of what was to become a global British Empire centuries later. 

Random as these milestones may seem, they do tell a story of what may be likely to survive. 

What is the global outlook?

We know that SA will have local elections, which are often indicative of national trends. 

But to avoid South African exceptionalism, it is also of interest that in 2016 the USA will have national elections.

The DRC will elect a president; Londoners will elect a new mayor; and Scots, Filipinos and Russians will elect new parliaments, all at varying levels of authentic democracy.

Barring disasters, America will miss its original deadline of withdrawing all combat forces from Afghanistan. 

In an apparent triviality, dogs in the UK will be required to wear microchips from April. And Nasa’s Juno will land on Jupiter, where space mining may become a reality.

With marginally less certainty we may surmise that ISIS will advance its attempts at dominance, as Al Qaeda (much like many inflexible corporate monoliths) experiences organisational decline.

In technology, the Internet of Things will mean that devices interact more and more frequently and record more data with greater diversity, accuracy and searchability. A mesh of devices is a virtual certainty for 2016.